The Wine Knows

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a 2007 crop estimates Friday, and the figure for Washington wine grapes would be a record 131,000 tons.

I wouldn't count on that much quite yet, as pre-harvest crop estimates tend to be just that: estimates. Last year about this time, the crop estimate was 123,000 tons, and the post-harvest number actually came pretty close at 120,000 tons, the record for Washington.

Here's how the crop estimate works (I think): Growers are queried about how big the crop is, how many new acres are hitting production age and whether Mother Nature has done anything to cause the crop to be down (such as winter freezes, poor flowering, spring rain, etc.).

The estimate also tries to take into account how much fruit is being dropped to ensure even ripening - something that took place primarily in late July but probably is going on now, too. However, while it might be simple for a vineyard owner who sells by the acre to figure out that 100 acres of Merlot at three tons per acre probably will be about 300 tons (give or take a half-ton per acre), it's less so for the vast majority of vineyards that sell by the ton. It becomes more difficult as you add more varieties, since Cabernet Sauvignon might come out to three tons per acre and Riesling might be around twice that much crop.

You might have heard the past few years that Washington has too many wine grapes and some have been left on the vineyard floor because they haven't been sold. In some cases, that is true. Thus, you might wonder what the state is going to do with an additional 11,000 tons of wine grapes, which will come out to something like 730,000 additional cases of wine!

Well, it all depends on the variety. If it's Riesling, Ste. Michelle, Constellation and Randall Grahm will take anything they can get their hands on. If it's something less sizzling, the big wineries will probably take the grapes and turn them into wine, then sell any juice they don't need to the likes of Magnificent Wine Co. or Precept Brands, which will bottle it, label it and turn it for $6-$10 per bottle - and a tidy profit.

Meanwhile, the number of wineries in Washington hasn't slowed down a bit. In fact, the state probably will get up to the alleged 500 wineries touted earlier this year. And all these folks need grapes and/or juice to get started or expand their production.

And just to put everything into perspective, Washington is No. 2 in America for wine grape production. No. 1? California at 3.2 million tons. That's 24.42 times bigger than Washington.